My Words are Flat and Harsh

The races for both parties' presidential nominations are showing signs of tightening. Yet a closer look at the numbers also reveals intriguing crosscurrents that raise questions about how solid the presumed Democratic advantage may be in November 2008.

Surveys show that people would clearly prefer that the Democratic Party win the White House next year, which political operatives and analysts attribute to the deep unpopularity of President Bush and the war in Iraq and a broad desire for change.

When top Republican and Democratic candidates are paired, however, the GOP hopefuls generally do quite well or at least hold their own.

Next year's Election Day is eons away in political time, and many things could happen to alter today's dynamics. For now, the surveys leave it unclear whether the apparent Democratic edge would really hold up should GOP candidates with moderate credentials like Rudy Giuliani or John McCain face Democrats such as Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama.

Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani remains on top in the race for the GOP nomination and now enjoys support from 30% of Likely Voters. That's more than twice the total of any other candidate. Former Tennessee Senator Fred Thompson and Arizona Senator John McCain are tied for second at 14%.

Thompson has been in the 12% to 14% range for each of the five surveys since his name was floated as a possible candidate.

McCain, once considered the dominant frontrunner, has struggled in recent months. His support among Likely GOP Primary voters has fallen eight percentage points since January. His numbers now are strongest among independents likely to vote in a Republican Primary. In Election 2000, McCain did best in open primaries that allowed independents to vote. Then Governor Bush did best in Primary states where only Republicans could vote.

Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney remains the only other candidate in double digits. Former House Speaker Newt Gingrich remains in fifth place with 8% support.

Giuliani is the most popular candidate in either party--62% now have a favorable opinion of him. McCain's favorability ratings among all voters have also fallen to the lowest level yet measured--49%. Thompson and Romney are less well known, viewed favorably by 35% and 32% respectively. See updated favorability ratings and general election match-ups for all Republican and Democratic candidates.

Among all voters, 44% now see John McCain as politically conservative. That's a significant increase from 26% in December. What's truly unusual about perceptions of the Arizona Senator is how consistent they are across party lines. Forty-four percent (44%) of Republicans view him as politically conservative. That view is shared by 45% of Democrats and 43% of those not affiliated with either major party.

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By NEDRA PICKLER, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON - Call it the presidential candidates' striptease. White House hopefuls aren't willing to just declare they're running, but rather are flirting with the idea as long as possible. First, they show some leg with an exploratory committee, then plenty of skin with a pronouncement on a faux news program or a late-night show and finally they bare all with a ruffles-and-flourish formal announcement.

"I'm here today to announce that my family and I will make a decision on my political future later this year," Republican Sen. Chuck Hagel (news, bio, voting record) said at a much-hyped news conference Monday in his hometown of Omaha, Neb.

Democratic Sen. Barack Obama (news, bio, voting record) drew 17,000 people to Springfield, Ill., last month to formally announce a presidential campaign that had been up and running for nearly a month.

Republican John McCain (news, bio, voting record), who has been campaigning for president practically since George W. Bush won a second term — or more likely when he lost to Bush in 2000 — went on CBS' "Late Show With David Letterman" in February to say he is running. But don't confuse that with a formal announcement — that will come in April, McCain told Letterman.

"You drag this out as long as you can. You don't just have one rendition," the Arizona senator said. "This is the announcement preceding the formal announcement."

Why all the bumps and grinds before admitting what most of the country already suspects?

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